ALARM bells are sounding for South Africa’s chicken supplies, as Brazil – the country’s top source of imported chicken – has detected two cases of avian influenza in wild birds, according to Hume International. In response, the government urgently needs to implement proactive measures to avoid a looming crisis, warn experts.
Per guidelines from the World Organization for Animal Health (WOAH), the incident will not trigger a ban on poultry exports from Brazil unless the virus spreads to commercial flocks. However, the contagious nature of the Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI) has led to the worst global outbreak of bird flu on record, which means that South Africa must prepare for the worst, explains managing director of Hume International, Fred Hume.
“If imports from Brazil are banned, there would be an immediate and potentially crippling impact on the local market which would cost thousands of jobs, cause dramatic increases in prices, and result in supply shortages,” he emphasises.
“It’s not only prudent but necessary to consider the dire consequences that would unfold should the outbreak impact chicken imports from Brazil. Local poultry producers simply cannot satisfy local demand, and South Africa is heavily reliant on Brazil to fill the void in supply,” he says.
Vital importance of Brazilian meat to local supplies
The National Agricultural Marketing Council (NAMC) notes that Brazil provided as much as 75% of South Africa’s imported chicken in 2022. Given the heightened demand for cheaper animal protein, especially among struggling and financially vulnerable households, Brazilian chicken imports thus play an essential role in supplementing local supply chains.
This role has only become more critical as intensified loadshedding has sparked growing poultry shortages, accelerating chicken and meat price inflation. As the latest Standard Bank Livestock Report reveals, chicken prices have risen 11% year-on-year, substantially higher than the headline consumer price index.
“Brazilian chicken is vital to local supply chains, and we do not have a credible replacement partner that has been approved by the Department of Agriculture, Land Reform and Rural Development (DALLRD). The government urgently needs to consider possible measures to prevent the potential devastation that would follow should Brazilian imports be halted.”
For example, DALLRD estimates that the broiler industry’s food processing sector is responsible for over 31,000 jobs. A shortage of mechanically deboned poultry meat (MDM) – a key ingredient in sausages, viennas, polonies, and pet food – could result in local production cutbacks and place these jobs at risk.
Likewise, production cuts could result in shortages of affordable processed meat products, while disruptions in frozen chicken supplies would result in meteoric price increases. Both, in turn, would threaten the food security of poor and low-income families who are dependent on chicken for protein.
Measures required
To reduce some of the impact of a potential ban on Brazilian chicken, the government first needs to extend the suspension of new import duties on frozen chicken. These include sizeable tariffs of 158.4% on chicken imports from Ireland; 96.9% on Poland; 85.8% on Spain; and 67.4% on Denmark.
These duties were suspended in August last year for a 12-month period in response to soaring food prices, but are soon due to be reinstated – potentially placing severe pressure on import supplies and food inflation.
The government could also consider adjusting its import policies regarding countries such as Brazil and Argentina to allow for regionalisation in the case of bird flu outbreaks. In keeping with the precedent already set by its trade policy regarding the US, this would limit poultry bans to imports from specific provinces where there is bird flu, as opposed to the entire country.
Finally, it could consider implementing heat treatment protocols for MDM from countries where there is bird flu. While MDM is already subject to heat treatments before shipping, additional treatments would set consumers’ minds at ease while ensuring a steady supply of the key ingredient for meat manufacturers.
“The government, industry representatives, and businesses urgently need to convene and discuss the way forward in case of emergency. We cannot afford to bury our heads in the stand – the government needs to act to reassure consumers and provide businesses with certainty,” says Hume.
