THE theme for Toyota South Africa Motors’ annual State of the Motor Industry event, hosted in Johannesburg last week, was a fitting “Driving Through Disruption”. Speakers focused on navigating global volatility, strengthening industrial competitiveness and accelerating South Africa’s transition to new energy vehicles.
Toyota South Africa Motors (TSAM) president and CEO Andrew Kirby noted that while global and local environments remain highly unpredictable, the industry must adapt faster and more dynamically than ever. “We live in uncertain times – globally and here in South Africa. The question is not whether disruption will come but how we respond to it,” he said. “Driving through disruption requires resilience, curiosity and continuous innovation.”
He emphasised the importance of South Africa’s auto industry to grow its volume, adding that however, volume growth needs to go hand in hand with growth in Completely Knocked-Down (CKD). Industry stats show that, despite industry growth, CKD has decreased. “It is not sufficient to only see volume growth stem from an increase in the entry (affordable) models as this does not have significant GDP impact. We also can’t rely on exports to fill the gap – global regulation and forces will impact where we can export to,” he added.
Kirby highlighted that Toyota South Africa’s focus remains firmly on treating each customer uniquely, shaping products and services around real-world needs and usage conditions. Additionally, he reiterated TSAM’s commitment to advancing South Africa’s industrial competitiveness through stable policy, investment in local operations and deeper supply-chain localisation.
Competitiveness
Kirby highlighted broader industrial challenges – including energy costs, logistics constraints, labour costs and rising input costs – commenting that South Africa is showing early signs of premature deindustrialisation. Manufacturing value-add per capita has declined over the last two decades, falling behind global peers. “We cannot become a purely import-driven market. With the right small policy adjustments, we can strengthen competitiveness, attract new investment and grow the economy,” he said.
Logistics
In his response to a question about whether the company expects improvements in port and rail logistics efficiency once public-private partnerships are in place, Kirby said it would take time. “We should see real material changes in 2027/8,” he said, acknowledging that the depth of reform, including new legislation, is a long-term process.
He said the company had seen significant improvements in port operations and lead times, with progress toward rail.
Quoting an example of how the deterioration in rail services impacted the business, he said Toyota used to transport vehicles every day between Durban and Gauteng. “Now we have one train a week and it takes four days. So that’s a fundamental area that needs to be addressed, but I think we can be very encouraged by the reforms that are on the right track. This year we need to bed those down and finalise them,” Kirby said.
Policy clarity
Kirby welcomed the European Union’s revision of its 2035 target from a 100% to a 90% emissions reduction for new cars or vans. This allows Internal Combustion Engines (ICE) and hybrid vehicles to remain in the mix beyond 2035 if powered by low‑carbon fuels or offset through other decarbonisation levers (e.g., e‑fuels, biofuels, low‑carbon steel). “This pragmatic shift recognises multiple viable pathways to net‑zero. However, we cannot rely on one export destination and assume conditions will stay the same. With incoming UK and EU emissions regulations, our future export volumes are at real risk,” Kirby said.
In contrast, South Africa currently has no New Energy Vehicle (NEV) target or regulatory framework, although additional investment support for Battery Energy Vehicles (BEVs) and Fuel Cell Electric Vehicles (FCEVs) takes effect in April. Kirby stressed that countries accelerating NEV adoption are doing so through clear regulatory signals and targeted incentives.
“South Africa must set clear goals and supportive policies aligned to global trends to accelerate NEV adoption in support of our 2050 net‑zero commitments,” he urged. “The fastest way to reduce near‑term emissions is with hybrid energy vehicles, complemented by plug-in hybrid energy vehicles – which offer practical benefits in our usage conditions – and a growing role for battery energy vehicles as charging infrastructure and total cost of ownership improve. Our drivetrain mix will be determined by customer value, infrastructure readiness and use cases.”
During a panel discussion, Professor Justin Barnes, a leading manufacturing and industrialisation expert, unpacked the evolving South African automotive policy environment and the practical interventions required to transition effectively into the NEV era. Barnes highlighted the country’s strengths in manufacturing and export capability but stressed the urgency of infrastructure investment, industry-government collaboration and workforce readiness.
Global economic outlook and its local impact
Renowned economist Goolam Ballim provided a strategic view of global macroeconomic forces affecting South Africa, including commodity cycles, currency movements and global demand shifts. He emphasised that while global headwinds persist, South Africa has significant opportunities to leverage if it aligns economic policy, energy stability and industrial strategy.
A vision for growth
Kirby expressed confidence that with the right policy frameworks and economic environment, South Africa has the potential to grow vehicle sales beyond 700,000 units and lift production beyond 720,000 units. If these are in place, he said that they would unlock an estimated R21 billion in additional manufacturing value-add and up to 14,500 new direct jobs, with Barnes agreeing that the potential multiplier effect will create a far wider impact.
“We must not simply defend what we have – we must grow. This industry has built deep capabilities over 100 years. With decisive leadership, collaboration and smart interventions, we can secure the next era of automotive manufacturing in South Africa.”
Kirby concluded by noting the encouraging progress in government–industry engagement through NAAMSA, NAACAM and AITF and called for urgent alignment to support the 2029–2030 investment cycle decisions now underway.
